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约会概率

Probability Discussion

专题
Probability / 概率
难度
L4

题目详情

学生非常守时,在下午 4:00 到 5:00 之间均匀随机到达。Gabe 会迟到一点,在 4:30 到 5:00 之间均匀随机到达。

先到的人最多等 10 分钟,若另一个人仍未到就离开。

问:两人能见面的概率是多少?

Gabe and a student have decided to meet up to discuss probability. The student is very prompt and will show up at a uniformly random time between 44 and 55 PM. Gabe is a tad late, so he will show up at a uniformly random time between 4:304:30 and 55 PM. For whichever person gets there first, they will wait up to 10 minutes, and if the other person has not shown up, they will leave. Find the probability that the meeting occurs.

解析

SS 为学生在 4:00 后的分钟数,SUnif(0,60)S\sim\mathrm{Unif}(0,60);令 GG 为 Gabe 在 4:00 后的分钟数,GUnif(30,60)G\sim\mathrm{Unif}(30,60)

能见面等价于 GS10|G-S|\le 10

(G,S)(G,S) 平面上的可行区域面积占比计算可得概率为

1136.\frac{11}{36}.

Original Explanation

First, let's model this mathematically. Let GG and SS be the number of minutes after 4 PM that Gabe and the student show up, respectively. Then we have that GUnif(30,60)G \sim \text{Unif}(30,60) and SUnif(0,60)S \sim \text{Unif}(0,60). The event that the meeting occurs is the just the event that GS10|G-S| \leq 10, as they must differ by up to 1010 minutes.

We should draw out the region in the plane to see what we are working with. If you put GG on the xx-axis and SS on the yy-axis, we have a tall rectangle. When drawing the two lines corresponding to GS10|G-S| \leq 10, you will notice that it is easier to calculate the probability of the complement, as those are easier regions to work with. You will see that there is one trapezoid and one triangle. It is easy enough to use some basic algebra to note that the slope is 11, so the line will go as far vertically as it does horizontally. You will find that the base of the trapezoid is 3030, and the two heights are 2020 and 5050, so its area is 10501050. The two sides of the triangle are 2020 each, so the area is 200200. Thus, the probability of the complement is 2536\dfrac{25}{36}. Thus, the probability in the question is 1136\dfrac{11}{36}.