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No more than three times

专题
Probability / 概率
难度
L4

题目详情

I will roll a single die no more than three times. You can stop me immediately after the first roll, or immediately after the second, or you can wait for the third. I will pay you the same number of dollars as there are dots on the single upturned face on my last roll (roll number three unless you stop me sooner). What is your playing

strategy? 2

解析

倒推。

第 3 次不可再继续。

第 2 次看到 xx:继续的期望为 3.53.5,所以 x4x\ge 4 则停,否则继续。

因此从第 1 次选择继续时的期望为

16(33.5+4+5+6)=4.25.\frac{1}{6}(3\cdot 3.5+4+5+6)=4.25.

第 1 次看到 yy:若 y5y\ge 5 则停,否则继续。

该策略下总体期望为

16(44.25+5+6)=1434.667.\frac{1}{6}(4\cdot 4.25+5+6)=\boxed{\frac{14}{3}}\approx 4.667.

Original Explanation

Work backwards.

On the third roll you must stop.

On the second roll, after seeing value xx, continuing has expected value 3.53.5, so stop if x4x\ge 4 and continue otherwise.

Therefore, if you continue after the first roll, the expected value is

16(33.5+4+5+6)=4.25.\frac{1}{6}(3\cdot 3.5+4+5+6)=4.25.

On the first roll, after seeing value yy, stop if y5y\ge 5 and continue otherwise.

Under this optimal strategy, the total expected value is

16(44.25+5+6)=1434.667.\frac{1}{6}(4\cdot 4.25+5+6)=\boxed{\frac{14}{3}}\approx 4.667.