偏好与模糊：愿意为抽球游戏付多少钱

(a) An urn contains 10 black balls and 10 white balls, identical except for color. You choose "black" or "white." One ball is drawn at random, and if its color matches your choice, you get $$10$, otherwise nothing. Write down the maximum amount you are willing to pay to play the game. The game will be played just once.

(b) A friend of yours has available many black and many white balls, and he puts

black and white balls into the urn to suit himself. You choose "black" or "white." A ball is drawn randomly from this urn. Write down the maximum amount you are willing to pay to play this game. The game will be played just once.

Problems without Structure (11 and 12)

Olaf Helmer and John Williams of The RAND Corporation have called my attention to a class of problems that they call "problems without structure," which nevertheless seem to have probabilistic features, though not in the usual sense.