HMMT 二月 2001 · GEN2 赛 · 第 6 题
HMMT February 2001 — GEN2 Round — Problem 6
题目详情
英文原题
- You take a wrong turn on the way to MIT and end up in Transylvania, where 99% ofthe inhabitants are vampires and the rest are regular humans. For obvious reasons, you wantto be able to figure out who’s who. On average, nine-tenths of the vampires are correctlyidentified as vampires and nine-tenths of humans are correct identified as humans. What isthe probability that someone identified as a human is actually a human?
[ ]
1 1
解析
英文解析
- You take a wrong turn on the way to MIT and end up in Transylvania, where 99% ofthe inhabitants are vampires and the rest are regular humans. For obvious reasons, you wantto be able to figure out who’s who. On average, nine-tenths of the vampires are correctlyidentified as vampires and nine-tenths of humans are correct identified as humans. What isthe probability that someone identified as a human is actually a human?
Solution: Consider a sample of 1000 inhabitants. On average, 990 are vampires and 10
are people. 99 vampires are identified as human and 9 humans are identified as human. Soout of the 108 who pass, only are human.1
[ ]12
1 1