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集邮者

Stamp Collector

专题
Probability / 概率
难度
L2

题目详情

一位集邮者想收集 4 种不同的邮票。若她抽到每一种邮票的概率都相同,那么为了收集到 3 种不同的邮票,她期望需要抽到多少张邮票?

A stamp collector is attempting to collect 4 different stamp types. If she is equally likely to find each type of stamp, what is the expected number of stamps that she would have to find in order to find three different unique stamp types?

解析

我们把这个过程分成三个阶段:

  1. 第 1 阶段:集邮者拿到第一种不同的邮票。
  2. 第 2 阶段:集邮者拿到第二种不同的邮票。
  3. 第 3 阶段:集邮者拿到第三种不同的邮票。

分别计算每个阶段所需邮票数的期望,再把它们相加。

第一张邮票一定是新种类,所以拿到第一种不同邮票所需的期望张数为:E1=1E_1 = 1

当集邮者已经有 1 种不同邮票后,下一次抽到新种类的概率是 34\frac{3}{4},因为 4 种邮票里还有 3 种尚未出现。抽到新种类所需的尝试次数服从成功概率为 34\frac{3}{4} 的几何分布,因此这一阶段的期望尝试次数为:

E2=134=43E_2 = \frac{1}{\frac{3}{4}} = \frac{4}{3}

现在集邮者已经有 2 种不同邮票。抽到第三种不同邮票的概率是 24=12\frac{2}{4} = \frac{1}{2},因为还有 2 种尚未出现。因此这一阶段的期望尝试次数为:

E3=112=2E_3 = \frac{1}{\frac{1}{2}} = 2

收集到 3 种不同邮票所需的总期望为三个阶段期望之和:

E=E1+E2+E3=1+43+2=33+43+63=133E = E_1 + E_2 + E_3 = 1 + \frac{4}{3} + 2 = \frac{3}{3} + \frac{4}{3} + \frac{6}{3} = \frac{13}{3}

因此,集邮者为了收集到 3 种不同邮票,期望需要抽到的邮票张数是 133\boxed{\frac{13}{3}}


Original Explanation

We'll break the process into three phases:

  1. Phase 1: The collector finds the first unique stamp.
  2. Phase 2: The collector finds the second unique stamp.
  3. Phase 3: The collector finds the third unique stamp.

We will calculate the expected number of stamps needed in each phase and then sum them up.

The first stamp will always be a new type, so the expected number of stamps to find the first unique stamp is: E1=1E_1 = 1

Once the collector has one unique stamp, the probability of finding a new unique stamp on the next try is 34\frac{3}{4} because 3 out of the 4 stamp types remain undiscovered. The expected number of trials to get a new stamp follows a geometric distribution with success probability 34\frac{3}{4} . The expected number of trials to get a new type in this phase is:

E2=134=43E_2 = \frac{1}{\frac{3}{4}} = \frac{4}{3}

Now the collector has 2 unique stamps. The probability of finding a third unique stamp is 24=12\frac{2}{4} = \frac{1}{2}, since 2 out of the 4 types remained undiscovered. The expected number of trials to get a new type in this phase is

E3=112=2E_3 = \frac{1}{\frac{1}{2}} = 2

The total expected number of stamps to find three different types is the sum of the expectations for each phase:

E=E1+E2+E3=1+43+2=33+43+63=133E = E_1 + E_2 + E_3 = 1 + \frac{4}{3} + 2 = \frac{3}{3} + \frac{4}{3} + \frac{6}{3} = \frac{13}{3}

Thus, the expected number of stamps that the collector would have to find to get three different types is 133\boxed{\frac{13}{3}}.