连续两个 6
Sequential Six
题目详情
平均需要掷多少次六面公平骰,才能第一次连续两次掷出 6?
On average, how many times must a 6-sided die be rolled until a 6 turns up twice in a row?
解析
设 为从开始到首次出现连续两个 6 所需掷骰次数的期望。平均先要掷 6 次才会第一次掷出 6。此后下一次再掷:以 的概率直接再出一个 6,于是只再多掷 1 次;以 的概率没有出 6,相当于白白多掷了 1 次后重新开始。因此
解得 。
Original Explanation
We can solve this using a recurrence relation on, , the expected number of rolls. When we start rolling, we expect, on average 6 rolls until a 6 shows up. Once that happens, there is a 1/6 chance that we will roll once more, and a 5/6 chance that we will be, effectively, starting all over again, and so have as many additional expected rolls as when we started. As a result, we can say:
Solving this, we find that