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连续两个 6

Sequential Six

专题
Probability / 概率
难度
L3

题目详情

平均需要掷多少次六面公平骰,才能第一次连续两次掷出 6?

On average, how many times must a 6-sided die be rolled until a 6 turns up twice in a row?

解析

EE 为从开始到首次出现连续两个 6 所需掷骰次数的期望。平均先要掷 6 次才会第一次掷出 6。此后下一次再掷:以 16\frac{1}{6} 的概率直接再出一个 6,于是只再多掷 1 次;以 56\frac{5}{6} 的概率没有出 6,相当于白白多掷了 1 次后重新开始。因此

E=6+16×1+56(E+1)E = 6 + \frac{1}{6} \times 1 + \frac{5}{6}(E+1)

解得 E=42\boxed{E=42}


Original Explanation

We can solve this using a recurrence relation on, EE, the expected number of rolls. When we start rolling, we expect, on average 6 rolls until a 6 shows up. Once that happens, there is a 1/6 chance that we will roll once more, and a 5/6 chance that we will be, effectively, starting all over again, and so have as many additional expected rolls as when we started. As a result, we can say:

E=6+16×1+56(E+1)E = 6 + \frac{1}{6} \times 1 + \frac{5}{6}(E+1)

Solving this, we find that E=42\boxed{E=42}