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专题
Probability / 概率
难度
L4

题目详情

平均而言,需要掷多少次标准公平六面骰,才能至少见到所有面各一次?

On average, how many times do you need to roll a standard fair 6-sided die to see all of the sides at least once?

解析

这是经典的 coupon collector(集齐卡券)问题。

对于 nn 个等概率结果,看到所有结果至少一次的期望试验次数是 E(n)=nHn,E(n)=nH_n, 其中 Hn=1+12+13++1n.H_n=1+\frac12+\frac13+\cdots+\frac1n.

这里 n=6n=6,所以 H6=1+12+13+14+15+16=4920=2.45.H_6=1+\frac12+\frac13+\frac14+\frac15+\frac16=\frac{49}{20}=2.45.

因此 E(6)=6H6=64920=29420=14.7.E(6)=6\cdot H_6=6\cdot\frac{49}{20}=\frac{294}{20}=14.7.

答案是 14.7.\boxed{14.7}.


Original Explanation

For nn equally likely outcomes, the expected number of trials to see all nn at least once is

E(n)=nHn,E(n) = n \cdot H_n, where Hn=1+12+13++1n.H_n = 1 + \frac{1}{2} + \frac{1}{3} + \cdots + \frac{1}{n}.

For n=6n=6: H6=1+12+13+14+15+16.H_6 = 1 + \frac{1}{2} + \frac{1}{3} + \frac{1}{4} + \frac{1}{5} + \frac{1}{6}.

H6=4920=2.45.H_6 = \frac{49}{20} = 2.45.

Multiply by n=6n=6 E(6)=6H6=64920=29420=14.7.E(6) = 6 \cdot H_6 = 6 \cdot \frac{49}{20} = \frac{294}{20} = 14.7.

14.7\boxed{14.7}