这是经典的 coupon collector(集齐卡券)问题。
对于 n 个等概率结果,看到所有结果至少一次的期望试验次数是
E(n)=nHn,
其中
Hn=1+21+31+⋯+n1.
这里 n=6,所以
H6=1+21+31+41+51+61=2049=2.45.
因此
E(6)=6⋅H6=6⋅2049=20294=14.7.
答案是
14.7.
Original Explanation
For n equally likely outcomes, the expected number of trials to see all n at least once is
E(n)=n⋅Hn,
where
Hn=1+21+31+⋯+n1.
For n=6:
H6=1+21+31+41+51+61.
H6=2049=2.45.
Multiply by n=6
E(6)=6⋅H6=6⋅2049=20294=14.7.
14.7