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发牌:四人各恰好 1 张 A 的概率

Aces

专题
Strategy / 策略
难度
L4

题目详情

一副 52 张牌随机发给 4 个玩家,每人 13 张。问:每个玩家都恰好拿到 1 张 A 的概率是多少?

A 52-card deck is dealt randomly to 4 players, each getting 13 cards. What is the probability that each player has exactly 1 Ace?

解析

一种写法:

  • 总发牌数:52!(13!)4\frac{52!}{(13!)^4}
  • 先把 4 张不同的 A 分配给 4 人:4!4!
  • 剩余 48 张牌再平均分到每人 12 张:48!(12!)4\frac{48!}{(12!)^4}

所以概率为

4!48!(12!)452!(13!)4.\frac{4!\cdot \frac{48!}{(12!)^4}}{\frac{52!}{(13!)^4}}.

等价地,也可写成连乘:

1395126501349.1\cdot\frac{39}{51}\cdot\frac{26}{50}\cdot\frac{13}{49}.

Original Explanation

Total ways to deal: 52!(13!)4.\frac{52!}{(13!)^4}. To ensure each player gets exactly 1 Ace:

  • Assign the 4 distinct Aces to the 4 players in 4!4! ways,
  • Distribute the remaining 48 cards in 48!(12!)4\frac{48!}{(12!)^4} ways.

Thus the probability is 4!×48!(12!)452!(13!)4.\frac{ 4! \, \times \,\frac{48!}{(12!)^4} }{ \frac{52!}{(13!)^4} }. An alternative derivation gives 1×3951×2650×1349.1 \times \frac{39}{51} \times \frac{26}{50} \times \frac{13}{49}.