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100 枚硬币正面数为奇数的概率

Odd Coin Flips

专题
Probability / 概率
难度
L4

题目详情

同时抛 100 枚公平硬币。观察到正面数为奇数的概率是多少?

You flip 100100 fair coins simultaneously. What is the probability that you observe an odd number of heads?

解析

先抛前 99 枚。无论前 99 枚出现奇数还是偶数个正面,最后一枚硬币以 1/21/2 概率把奇偶性翻转到“奇数”。

因此概率为 12\boxed{\tfrac{1}{2}}


Original Explanation

Imagine flipping 99 coins first. The last coin always decides whether we observe an odd or even number of heads. Thus, the probability of observing an odd number of heads is 12\frac{1}{2}.