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三骰子点数和为 10 的概率

10 Die Sum

专题
Probability / 概率
难度
L4

题目详情

掷三枚公平六面骰,点数和为 10 的概率是多少?

Find the probability of obtaining a sum of 1010 when rolling three fair 66-sided dice.

解析

不考虑顺序的组合为:

(1,6,3)(1,6,3)(1,5,4)(1,5,4)(2,6,2)(2,6,2)(2,5,3)(2,5,3)(2,4,4)(2,4,4)(3,4,3)(3,4,3)

其中 3 个是三值全不同:(1,6,3)(1,6,3)(1,5,4)(1,5,4)(2,5,3)(2,5,3),各有 3!=63!=6 种排列,共 36=183\cdot 6=18

另外 3 个包含重复(两值):各有 3 种排列,共 33=93\cdot 3=9

总有利结果 18+9=2718+9=27,样本空间大小 63=2166^3=216,因此

P=27216=18.P=\frac{27}{216}=\frac{1}{8}.

Original Explanation

The most efficient approach here would be generating functions. However, we are going to solve via casework instead. The possibilities of values (not ordered in any way currently) that result in a sum of 1010 are

(1,6,3),(1,5,4),(2,6,2),(2,5,3),(2,4,4),(3,4,3)(1,6,3), (1,5,4), (2,6,2), (2,5,3), (2,4,4), (3,4,3)

Three of these combinations have all distinct values. Namely, these are (1,6,3),(1,5,4)(1,6,3), (1,5,4), and (2,5,3)(2,5,3). For these sets of outcomes, there are 3!=63! = 6 ways they can be assigned to the three dice. These yield 36=183 \cdot 6 = 18 possibilities.

The other three outcomes have two distinct values. For these, there are only 33 ways they can each be assigned to the dice, as you only select the die that shows the value that differs from the other two. Then, the other two dice are fixed. These yield 33=93 \cdot 3 = 9 possibilities.

Combining these two cases yields 18+9=2718 + 9 = 27 possibilities that result in a sum of 1010. We divide by 63=2166^3 = 216 to get the probability, yielding a final answer of 18\frac{1}{8}.