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第二张牌点数大于第一张的概率

Probability second card is higher than first

专题
Probability / 概率
难度
L4

题目详情

一副标准扑克牌 52 张。依次抽取两张牌(不放回)。问:第二张牌的点数(rank)严格大于第一张牌的点数的概率是多少?

英文原题

A standard 52-card deck. If we pick 2 cards in sequence, what is P(second rank>first rank)P(\text{second rank}>\text{first rank})?

解析

设事件 TT 为“点数相同”。抽到第一张后,剩余 51 张里有 3 张与其同点数,所以

P(T)=351=117.P(T)=\frac{3}{51}=\frac{1}{17}.

TcT^c 条件下,第二张更大与更小对称,因此

P(第二张更大)=1P(T)2=11/172=817.P(\text{第二张更大})=\frac{1-P(T)}{2}=\frac{1-1/17}{2}=\frac{8}{17}.

英文解析

Set event TT to “Same Points”. After drawing the first one, 3 of the remaining 51 cards have the same points, so

P(T)=351=117.P(T)=\frac{3}{51}=\frac{1}{17}.

Under the condition of TcT^c, the second sheet is larger and smaller symmetrically, so

P(second card is higher)=1P(T)2=11/172=817.P(\text{second card is higher})=\frac{1-P(T)}{2}=\frac{1-1/17}{2}=\frac{8}{17}.