两个骰子游戏的选择
Two games are offered
题目详情
现在有两个游戏供你选择。游戏一：你掷一次骰子，收益为 $1 百万美元乘以骰子朝上一面的点数。游戏二：你掷一百万次骰子，每次收益为 $1 乘以该次骰子朝上一面的点数。假设你是风险厌恶者，你会选择哪个游戏？
英文原题
Two games are offered to you. In Game One, you roll a die once and are paid $1 million times the number of dots on the upturned face of the die. In Game Two, you roll a die one million times. For each roll you are paid $1 times the number of dots on the upturned face of the die. You are risk averse. Which game do you prefer?
解析
解析需会员查看。
英文解析
Both games have the same expected payoff: million. However, the second game has much less volatility than the first. The Weak Law of Large Numbers says that your actual payoff will be much closer to the expected payoff in Game Two. As a risk - averse individual. you choose Game Two.