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期权价格对参数变化的方向

Price Direction of Options

专题
Finance / 金融
难度
L4

题目详情

香草(vanilla)欧式/美式期权的价值在下列参数变化时如何变化?

  • SS:标的现价
  • KK:行权价
  • τ\tau:到期剩余时间
  • σ\sigma:波动率
  • rr:无风险利率
  • DD:未来分红现值(或分红强度)

How does the value of a vanilla European/American option change when S,K,τ,σ,r,DS,K,\tau,\sigma,r,D vary?

解析

基本结论:

  • 看涨 payoff:max(SK,0)\max(S-K,0);看跌 payoff:max(KS,0)\max(K-S,0)
  • 欧式只能到期行权;美式可提前行权,因此“时间更多”对美式通常不减价值。

方向总结:

变量 欧式看涨 欧式看跌 美式看涨 美式看跌
SS\uparrow 上升 下降 上升 下降
KK\uparrow 下降 上升 下降 上升
τ\tau\uparrow 不一定单调 不一定单调 上升 上升
σ\sigma\uparrow 上升 上升 上升 上升
rr\uparrow 上升 下降 上升 下降
DD\uparrow 下降 上升 下降 上升

直觉:

  • σ\sigma 越大,尾部更肥,期权(凸)更值钱。
  • rr 越大,KerτK e^{-r\tau} 越小:看涨更值钱、看跌更不值钱。
  • 分红会压低标的预期价格,对看涨不利、对看跌有利。

Original Explanation

  • A call payoff is max(SK,0)\max(S-K,0). A put payoff is max(KS,0)\max(K-S,0).
  • A European option can be exercised only at maturity TT. An American option can be exercised at any time before TT.

The table shows the direction of change for each input variable:

Variable European call European put American call American put
SS \uparrow (stock) up down up down
KK \uparrow (strike) down up down up
τ\tau \uparrow (time) ? uncertain ? uncertain up up
σ\sigma \uparrow (vol) up up up up
rr \uparrow (rate) up down up down
DD \uparrow (dividend) down up down up
  • Stock price SS / Strike KK: straightforward from payoff arguments.
  • Time τ\tau:
    • For a European option: not necessarily monotonic, because it can only be exercised at TT. The effect of more time is uncertain for a pure European payoff.
    • For an American option: having more time generally increases the option value (it can be exercised at any time).
  • Volatility σ\sigma: higher volatility \Rightarrow more chance to benefit from payoff \Rightarrow value goes up.
  • Risk-free rate rr: affects discounting of KerτK e^{-r\tau}. Higher rr makes KerτK e^{-r\tau} smaller \Rightarrow call is worth more, put is worth less.
  • Dividend DD: paying a dividend lowers the underlying stock price \Rightarrow opposite effect to SS.