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掷骰直到出现 6

Keep rolling a die until a 6 appears

专题
Probability / 概率
难度
L2

题目详情

反复掷一枚公平六面骰,直到第一次掷出 6(包含这次掷出的 6)。把所有掷出的点数相加。

问:累计点数之和为偶数的概率是多少?

英文原题

Probability that (all outcomes)\sum \text{(all outcomes)} is even?

解析

EE 表示“当前累计和为偶数时,最终为偶数”的概率,OO 表示“当前累计和为奇数时,最终为偶数”的概率。

从偶数状态出发:掷到 6(概率 1/61/6)直接结束且仍为偶数;掷到 1,3,5 会转到奇数状态(共 3 个点数),掷到 2,4 会留在偶数状态(共 2 个点数)。

因此

E=161+26E+36O.E=\frac{1}{6}\cdot 1+\frac{2}{6}E+\frac{3}{6}O.

从奇数状态出发:掷到 6 结束且为奇数(偶数事件失败);掷到 1,3,5 会转到偶数状态,掷到 2,4 会留在奇数状态:

O=36E+26O.O=\frac{3}{6}E+\frac{2}{6}O.

解得 O=34EO=\frac{3}{4}E,代回得 E=47E=\frac{4}{7}

初始累计为 0(偶数),所以所求概率为 47\boxed{\frac{4}{7}}


英文解析

Let EE represent the probability that the current cumulative sum is even, and OO represent the probability that the current cumulative sum is even.

From the even state: throwing to 6 (probability 1/61/6) directly ends and is still even; throwing to 1,3,5 will go to the odd state (3 points total), and throwing to 2,4 will remain in the even state (2 points total).

Therefore,

E=161+26E+36O.E=\frac{1}{6}\cdot 1+\frac{2}{6}E+\frac{3}{6}O.

From the odd state: throw to the end of 6 and it is odd (even event failure); throw to 1, 3, 5 will go to the even state, and throw to 2, 4 will stay in the odd state:

O=36E+26O.O=\frac{3}{6}E+\frac{2}{6}O.

I got O=34EO=\frac{3}{4}E, and I got E=47E=\frac{4}{7}back.

The initial cumulative is 0 (even), so the probability required is 47\boxed{\frac{4}{7}}.