掷骰直到出现 6
Keep rolling a die until a 6 appears
题目详情
反复掷一枚公平六面骰,直到第一次掷出 6(包含这次掷出的 6)。把所有掷出的点数相加。
问:累计点数之和为偶数的概率是多少?
英文原题
Probability that is even?
解析
设 表示“当前累计和为偶数时,最终为偶数”的概率, 表示“当前累计和为奇数时,最终为偶数”的概率。
从偶数状态出发:掷到 6(概率 )直接结束且仍为偶数;掷到 1,3,5 会转到奇数状态(共 3 个点数),掷到 2,4 会留在偶数状态(共 2 个点数)。
因此
从奇数状态出发:掷到 6 结束且为奇数(偶数事件失败);掷到 1,3,5 会转到偶数状态,掷到 2,4 会留在奇数状态:
解得 ,代回得 。
初始累计为 0(偶数),所以所求概率为 。
英文解析
Let represent the probability that the current cumulative sum is even, and represent the probability that the current cumulative sum is even.
From the even state: throwing to 6 (probability ) directly ends and is still even; throwing to 1,3,5 will go to the odd state (3 points total), and throwing to 2,4 will remain in the even state (2 points total).
Therefore,
From the odd state: throw to the end of 6 and it is odd (even event failure); throw to 1, 3, 5 will go to the even state, and throw to 2, 4 will stay in the odd state:
I got , and I got back.
The initial cumulative is 0 (even), so the probability required is .