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囚犯假释:问“另一个会被释放的人”会改变概率吗

The Prisoner's Dilemma

专题
Brainteaser / 脑筋急转弯
难度
L4

题目详情

Three prisoners, A,BA,B , and CC , with apparently equally good records have applied for parole. The parole board has decided to release two of the three, and the prisoners know this but not which two. A warder friend of prisoner AA knows who are to be released. Prisoner AA realizes that it would be unethical to ask the warder if he, AA , is to be released, but thinks of asking for the name of one prisoner other than himself who is to be released. He thinks that before he asks, his chances of release are 23\frac{2}{3} . He thinks that if the warder says " BB will be released," his own chances have now gone down to 12\frac{1}{2} , because either AA and BB or BB and CC are to be released. And so AA decides not to reduce his chances by asking. However, AA is mistaken in his calculations. Explain.

解析

A 的计算错在:他忽略了“看守说了谁会被释放”本身也是随机事件,导致样本空间不对。

关键是:当释放组合为 BCBC 时,看守在回答“B 会被释放”与“C 会被释放”之间需要某种规则(常见假设为等概率随机说一个)。

假设三种释放组合 AB,AC,BCAB,AC,BC 先验各为 1/31/3,并且在 BCBC 情况下看守以 1/21/2 概率说 B、1/21/2 概率说 C。

若你听到看守说“B 会被释放”,则可能情形只有:

  • 实际释放 ABAB 且说 B:概率 1/31/3
  • 实际释放 BCBC 且说 B:概率 1/3×1/2=1/61/3\times 1/2=1/6

因此

P(A被释放说B)=1/31/3+1/6=23.\mathbb{P}(A\text{被释放}\mid \text{说B})=\frac{1/3}{1/3+1/6}=\boxed{\frac{2}{3}}.

所以 A 的释放概率并没有降到 1/2。