囚犯假释:问“另一个会被释放的人”会改变概率吗
The Prisoner's Dilemma
题目详情
Three prisoners, , and , with apparently equally good records have applied for parole. The parole board has decided to release two of the three, and the prisoners know this but not which two. A warder friend of prisoner knows who are to be released. Prisoner realizes that it would be unethical to ask the warder if he, , is to be released, but thinks of asking for the name of one prisoner other than himself who is to be released. He thinks that before he asks, his chances of release are . He thinks that if the warder says " will be released," his own chances have now gone down to , because either and or and are to be released. And so decides not to reduce his chances by asking. However, is mistaken in his calculations. Explain.
解析
A 的计算错在:他忽略了“看守说了谁会被释放”本身也是随机事件,导致样本空间不对。
关键是:当释放组合为 时,看守在回答“B 会被释放”与“C 会被释放”之间需要某种规则(常见假设为等概率随机说一个)。
假设三种释放组合 先验各为 ,并且在 情况下看守以 概率说 B、 概率说 C。
若你听到看守说“B 会被释放”,则可能情形只有:
- 实际释放 且说 B:概率 ;
- 实际释放 且说 B:概率 。
因此
所以 A 的释放概率并没有降到 1/2。