篮球最后一攻：投三分还是两分
Your team is down two points
题目详情
Basketball! Your team is down two points, you are the best player, and you have the ball. There are only a few seconds left before the buzzer. You can take a shot from three- point land or move up and take one from two- point land. Historically, you have a probability of getting the shot in from three- point land and a probability
of getting the shot in from two- point land.
Should you try for the three- point shot (a certain win if you make it), or should you try for the two- point shot? Note that a two- pointer produces a tie and puts you into overtime. We assume your team has a fifty- fifty chance of winning in overtime.
解析
投三分直接赢的概率为 。
投两分：进球概率 追平进入加时，加时胜率 ，因此赢球概率为
因为 ，所以应选择 。